FRUIT EXPLOITATION AND CLIMATE SUITABILITY FOR SPONDIAS TUBEROSA: IMPLICATIONS FOR MANAGEMENT AND CONSERVATION

Abstract

Background:

Spondias tuberosa Arruda (Anacardiaceae) is a tree that has raised concerns about population decline due to current land-use practices in the Caatinga, a highly vulnerable ecosystem. The decline of S. tuberosa populations is particularly problematic considering its ecological significance and potential importance for local communities. This study aims to quantify the impact of fruit extraction on S. tuberosa populations and to predict current and future climatically suitable areas, seeking essential guidance for developing effective management and conservation strategies. Production data (tons) and commercialization value (Brazilian Reais) were collected from 1994 to 2021. The Maxent algorithm was used to correlate occurrence records with relevant climatic variables under optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Results:

Bahia emerged as the dominant producer and trader of S. tuberosa fruits from 1994 to 2021, despite its wider distribution across the Northeast. The Maxent models achieved a robust fit (area under the curve, AUC > 0.94) for both present conditions and future climate change scenarios. The primary climatic variable that significantly influences the distribution of S. tuberosa is annual precipitation.

Conclusion:

Future climate scenarios predict substantial expansions of suitable habitat areas in Pernambuco and Bahia. The findings inform strategies for sustainable resource management, including the establishment of commercial plantations and the creation of ex-situ conservation banks alongside environmental protection areas.