RENTABILITY AND INVESTMENT RISK IN PALM HEART OF PEJIBAYE (Bactris gasipaes Kunth.) CULTIVATION

Abstract

This study carried out an economic study and a risk simulation analysis in a palm heart of pejibaye (Bactris gasipaes Kunth.) cultivation project. Economic analysis was made by using the project evaluation methods: NPV, VAE, TIR and B/C; and the risk analysis was carried out through the Monte Carlo simulation technique by @RISK software. It was concluded that the project of palm heart of pejibaye cultivation is viable, with NPV of R$ 3.549,08; TIR of 19%; B/C greater than 1; the VAE of R$ 1.049,12. The risk analysis showed that the project presents a probability of 5% of getting a negative value for VPL. The variables which affected Net Present Value (NPV) according to the ranking of importance were: selling price, productivity and discount rate.