AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

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Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior José Luiz Pereira de Rezende Antônio Donizette de Oliveira Luís Antônio Borges Coimbra Álvaro Nogueira de Souza

Abstract

Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination of agriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projects assume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with the agricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory of simulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A total of 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL), of Internal Rate of Return (TIR) and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPE) were made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00; 77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented low investment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

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How to Cite
JUNIOR, Luiz Moreira Coelho et al. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK. CERNE, [S.l.], v. 14, n. 4, p. 368-378, oct. 2015. ISSN 2317-6342. Available at: <http://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/649>. Date accessed: 18 sep. 2019.
Keywords
Forest economy, agroforestry system, risk and uncertainty, simulation of Monte Carlo
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